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Old 08-31-2017, 09:56 AM   #3951
Shuckle
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Didn't you pay any attention to Ann Coulter? Harvey wasn't a result of global warming, it was a result of Houston electing a lesbian mayor. God needed to punish that transgression with a major flood, as is his usual MO.
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Old 08-31-2017, 03:34 PM   #3952
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Harvey's damage is unrelated to global warming. Global warming explains large, faster, more frequent hurricanes. It doesn't explain a hurricane deciding to park in one place to bring about the second coming of Noah's flood.
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Old 08-31-2017, 06:36 PM   #3953
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Global warming would go a long way to explain why the storm managed to sustain itself for long enough to create this kind of damage.

I agree to an extent that using that infographic in a blanket statement of "global warming caused this entirely" is incorrect, but it is hard to deny it had an obvious role to play.
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Old 08-31-2017, 07:30 PM   #3954
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Not that I'm an AGW denier or anything, but we've had a remarkably quiet decade for eastern US hurricanes and now we get a c4 and the world is back to ending again. It makes the argument seem silly to me.
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Old 08-31-2017, 07:54 PM   #3955
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What, do we need to have a C3/4/5 hurricane smack the east coast every year for climate change to be involved? That's a bit silly.
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Old 08-31-2017, 08:13 PM   #3956
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...I don't want to be that girl, but this is not just "a C4", this is a storm that has caused the worst flooding in recorded history in the Houston area. Irma also looks like its going to be a C4-5 as well by the time it reaches the US as well.
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Old 08-31-2017, 08:22 PM   #3957
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Global warming would go a long way to explain why the storm managed to sustain itself for long enough to create this kind of damage.
You mean how the hurricane stayed partially over the Gulf of Mexico so it could continue to draw in water?

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I agree to an extent that using that infographic in a blanket statement of "global warming caused this entirely" is incorrect, but it is hard to deny it had an obvious role to play.
What is the obvious role. There isn't one from my perspective.

Only on the level of "global warming is causing bigger, nastier hurricanes" can we make this argument, and even then, this is the first hurricane to make landfall in the US since Katrina. It's not like wrathful God is hurling hurricanes at the US every year.
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Old 08-31-2017, 09:34 PM   #3958
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Well I mean global warming fucks with the usual streams of warm and cold air. Part of the reason Harvey stayed partially over the Gulf to pull in water was because there was a high pressure system that refused to budge, which meant that Harvey had nowhere to go and spun its wheels right on top of Houston and Galveston. (I'm a little surprised to hear nothing about Galveston in the media. Apparently it's FAR worse off than Houston is. Maybe it's less well known? It got slammed by the unnamed hurricane in 1900 too, but that was a storm surge, not torrential rains.)

It's not that Harvey was a nasty hurricane in and of itself (at least, nastier than normal), or that global warming caused Harvey to happen. Instead, the argument is that the unique situation that Harvey caused (a hurricane sits still and dumps historic rainfall on its victim cities) was a direct result of climate change.

With Katrina, it's just that NO was not prepared for the massive storm surge that the hurricane brought in its wake. If Katrina had happened now, I don't think we'd see people talking about global warming at all, although it probably should have been a talking point even in 2005 (higher sea levels = bigger storm surge).
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Old 08-31-2017, 11:56 PM   #3959
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https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...global-warming
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Old 09-01-2017, 02:17 PM   #3960
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Harvey is seriously the first tropical storm to make landfall in the US since Katrina? Did we suddenly forget that Sandy was a thing that decimated a bunch of the east coast or was that thing in another league entirely
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Old 09-01-2017, 05:31 PM   #3961
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Technically Sandy was a post-tropical cyclone when it came ashore.

That's still a semantic though.
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Old 09-02-2017, 10:52 AM   #3962
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The surrounding wind field of a hurricane largely (albeit not entirely) determines a storm's path, whereas ocean temperature most directly impacts rate of growth and intensity of a storm. As with any storm, a hurricane's path considered mathematically chaotic, that is that systematic long term predictions are very difficult because they are sensitive with respect to initial conditions, and depend continuously on interactions with their changing environment. It is largely difficult to pinpoint the reason that a singular storm behaved in the way that it did during its lifetime, and to attribute a single storm to "effects from global warming" is perhaps jumping the shark in terms of scientific certainty.

A very good point was brought up by Mozz about us having a relatively quiet decade for hurricanes. Because singular storms are relatively difficult to study the causes of (there's simply too much data to work with), we instead study trends of storms and study new storms in relation to what we already generally know of others. If we subscribe to the logic that "global warming is a significant cause of hurricane activity", we would expect a more consistent trend of there being more, stronger storms than what we would otherwise expect with respect to other factors. This is patently not the case. Having said that, it's also not as simple as saying "we haven't had activity lately, so it can't be global warming." The trend simply does not suggest such as certainty, and a ten-year trend on this kind of scale is largely insubstantial.

My point here is as follows: It is largely beyond our knowledge of both mathematics and atmospheric science to necessarily attribute or dissociate any short term frequency/intensity of hurricanes to the effects of global warming.

Geet's post is also good and discusses something largely different than the content of this post.
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Old 10-08-2017, 12:31 PM   #3963
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I've been watching the press conferences held by the Las Vegas police department with regard to Steven Paddock and they've been pretty depressing. Everything we've learned about Paddock is that he was incredibly smart, and the LVPD is not, so their efforts to try and discern his well-hidden tracks come across as futile and inept.

Their latest breaking news: Paddock may have had an undiagnosed mental disease. Source: LVPD investigators.

Even more troubling...

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"The lack of a social media footprint is likely intentional," Erroll Southers, director of homegrown violent extremism studies at the University of Southern California, told the Associated Press "We're so used to, in the first 24 to 48 hours, being able to review social media posts. If they don't leave us a note behind or a manifesto behind, and we're not seeing that, that's what's making this longer."
How on earth did Sherlock Holmes solve crimes in the 19th century without the ability to review a criminal's Facebook wall?!
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