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Old 10-27-2012, 06:04 AM   #1
deoxys
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Hurricane Sandy

Not sure if it warrants a post or not, but I was reading this as well as some other news reports - those of you in the northeast US, particularly New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New York need to take extreme precautions for this storm. Take a gander:

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So here we are about 3 or 4 days away from what may be the worst storm for the Northeast since humans populated the area. I'm not kidding, that is a possibility. We know neither how strong this beast will be or exactly who will get the worst of it. Why? Because what is about to happen is unprecedented in the years that human have attempted to understand how the atmosphere works. Hurricanes have merged with colder air as an energetic jet stream interacts before. But perhaps not with the intensity of the factors coming into play this time. A similar scenario has happened before, back in 1991 ... the "Perfect Storm" of movie and book lore was born. Forecasts of that storm were awful leading up to it. The center of that system never made landfall along the East Coast. In fact, at its strongest the core of that storm was a few hundred miles east of New England. Here's what resulted: 80 mph winds and 25-foot waves on the Massachusetts Coast. Offshore buoys recorded 40-foot waves (that is enough to swallow a fishing boat). The Maryland Coast recorded record high tides. The lowest barometric pressure with that storm was 972 mb (that corresponds to 28.70" for those of you who are familiar with those units). Some computer forecast models drop the lowest pressure with Sandy to below 940 mb (27.75"). If you have a barometer at home, take a look at it - it doesn't go that low. If that occurs, this storm will bring the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded on the East Coast. Low pressure means wind, an tropical storm force winds already extend hundreds of miles away from the center of Sandy. Some believe as the storm approaches the coast it may intensify which means stronger winds. That means a widespread area of damage and power outages in the most populated part of the country. I feel there is a good chance we will still have some areas, perhaps entire communities, that lose power and still do not have it come Election Day a week later. Think about that ... no power on Election Day ... a hanging chad could pale in comparison.

But here's the problem ... the computer forecast models that all the forecasters will lean on so heavily have no chance of getting this exactly right. Models are either configured (numerically, in terms of the mathematical equations that drive them), to handle either tropical system well, or what we call mid-latitude systems well, that is ones with warm and cold air clashing. There is no model that handles both well. If there were we would have one great model and my life would be far less stressful. The hurricane will merge with colder air and energy from the jet stream and transition from a tropical system into what we call an extratropical one. Historically the computer forecast models are not good when this happens. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast takes Sandy early Tuesday into the New Jersey or Deleware Coast on a westward track (which by the way has NEVER happened since we have been keeping track of these sort of things). They may be weighing the models that handle tropical system a bit more heavily, but those models should become less accurate as the colder, mid-latitude air works into Sandy's circulation near landfall. As of early this afternoon we have a threat or landfall anywhere between the eastern shore of Maryland and Massachusetts. It may be later Monday or even as late as early Wednesday. We will hear about this storm for weeks after it happens. Homes will fall into the ocean and lives will be lost. If the damaging winds are widespread enough, it may be one of the costliest weather events in U.S. history due to the population likely affected.

PLEASE be safe over the next few days. It would appear this is not just your run of the mill hurricane.
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Old 10-27-2012, 07:58 AM   #2
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Old 10-27-2012, 08:08 AM   #3
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Old 10-27-2012, 08:53 AM   #4
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Yeah, I'd probably advise staying indoors and doing the "board up your window" thing whenever it makes landfall. Stay safe, guys.
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Old 10-27-2012, 09:24 AM   #5
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I live in Connecticut. Hopefully this does not get to be Katrina power or some shit. I've even heard shit about snow from this.

God this looks bad I am rambling so bad.
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Old 10-27-2012, 09:26 AM   #6
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Yeah, we're even getting major warnings for this in Eastern PA. I figured it was no big deal, that we'd just get a little more rain than normal, but I obviously didn't know all the facts. Hopefully it isn't as bad as anticipated. Stay safe, everybody.
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Old 10-27-2012, 09:29 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blazeVA View Post
Hopefully this does not get to be Katrina power or some shit. I've even heard shit about snow from this.
I think it's a Category 2 or something, so not quite, but that's still quite bad.

I didn't even think about a possibility of snow. That's nuts, everything's gonna get completely buried if that happens.
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Old 10-27-2012, 11:56 AM   #8
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No school!

but in seriousness, stay safe guys. Hopefully it won't be as bad as Katrina or worse.
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Old 10-27-2012, 12:16 PM   #9
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9 years back we were hit by Hurricane Juan. It was a Cat 2 when it made landfall. We were fine, we just had to deal with no power for a week. Still, be prepared for trees falling down and for stuff blowing around.

Hmmm, maybe this is Mother Natures way of telling them politians not to forget about it XD.

Katrina was bad because someone had the good idea of building New Orlean below sea level. And that was a Cat 5, Sandy doesn't have that much power behind her.
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Old 10-27-2012, 12:32 PM   #10
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I wonder if it was a good idea to come home. >.>; Seems I always do when there's a storm. =x Hope I'll even be able to get back to school tomorrow, I have exams on Monday. x.X *hopes they'll be canceled but most likely not*
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Old 10-27-2012, 01:00 PM   #11
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Living in Penn has gifted me with a few warnings. Tue only people (non-UPN) I know that live in the storm path are my great aunt and uncle and my girlfriend's parents (all in Maryland).

Be safe UPNers. You can live with me if your house is destroyed.
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Old 10-27-2012, 03:01 PM   #12
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I'm in VA, right where the storm's supposedly supposed to be bad (Fairfax area, right below DC), but I think it should be interesting. People are going to overreact though.
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Old 10-27-2012, 06:13 PM   #13
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I knew I should have ordered the Slip and Slide after that last hurricane we had. I guess I can always look forward to the next hurricane.
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Old 10-28-2012, 09:34 AM   #14
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Yikes. I am nowhere near America, so... stay safe guys.
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Old 10-28-2012, 11:17 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Firewater View Post
I'm in VA, right where the storm's supposedly supposed to be bad (Fairfax area, right below DC), but I think it should be interesting. People are going to overreact though.
[2] >_> This is a kind of creepy coincidence.

Sandy is moving extremely slowly and it will likely be hours before she hits. It's going to be a very, very long storm and will likely last for several days. The path of the predicted storm looks like it's going to roll along the coast which isn't so bad, but if Sandy makes landfall she could really do some damage.

Hint hint Isabel did like exactly the same thing
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Old 10-28-2012, 11:50 AM   #16
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I am one of the unfortunate people to live in Southern New Jersey. So does all of my family. I am hoping that the worst that happens is losing power, since the goal is to still have a house after all of this is done. We have officially stocked up on Doritos and Halloween candy just to be on the safe side.
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Old 10-28-2012, 01:09 PM   #17
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Be safe dear american friends.

Yours Faithfully
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Old 10-28-2012, 01:49 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmoyes View Post
Katrina was bad because someone had the good idea of building New Orlean below sea level.
See also; the Netherlands.
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Old 10-28-2012, 02:55 PM   #19
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Old 10-28-2012, 02:58 PM   #20
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School just got cancelled for me tomorrow, which means they're probably going to cancel Tuesday as well. They're really being cautious with this, which is nice. Usually we go to school even if there's flooding.
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Old 10-28-2012, 05:03 PM   #21
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School is canceled, F YEAH! ...Although this means I'll have three exams next Monday. ='D At least I can stop studying for now and sleep. XP
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Old 10-28-2012, 05:10 PM   #22
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No school!
but my internet connection is starting to lag and slowly diminish... fuck.
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Old 10-28-2012, 05:26 PM   #23
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If the power goes out I get to camp out overnight at the store in which I work getting paid overtime to sit there and do nothing until power comes back on. I have plenty of beer because my manager has already said he doesn't care.
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Old 10-28-2012, 05:27 PM   #24
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If the power goes out I get to camp out overnight at the store in which I work getting paid overtime to sit there and do nothing until power comes back on. I have plenty of beer because my manager has already said he doesn't care.
Cool.
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Old 10-28-2012, 05:29 PM   #25
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Technically it's to prevent break ins during extended power outages, but the procedure for a break in is to run out the back door like a bat out of hell whilst calling 911.
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