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Old 09-18-2014, 09:50 PM   #251
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You can easily predict the a outcome of the presidential election. Just wait until Ohio is securely held by a candidate, they're almost guaranteed to win. No US President has won the election without holding that state, ever. Even the eight instances of plurality still followed this rule.
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Old 09-18-2014, 09:53 PM   #252
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Has this become the Scotland indyref thread?

EDIT: I see that it is. In that case, I really like Jim Murphy.
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Old 09-18-2014, 10:22 PM   #253
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Relevant xkcd

Also, Nixon won Ohio in 1960 but lost the election. Dewey won it in '44 over FDR. Cleveland lost Ohio all three times he ran (I guess sharing a name with one of the state's big cities wasn't doing much for him), and he won two of those races. Buchanan lost it in '56, Cass in '48, Clay in '44, Harrison in '36, and Clay AGAIN in '24.

Regardless, back to Scotland.
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Old 09-18-2014, 10:31 PM   #254
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Never change, UKIP. Never change. So entertaining.
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Old 09-19-2014, 12:38 AM   #255
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As of 5:30am in the UK, the current results reported by the BBC are:
Code:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
NO 		1,305,388 	54.21%
YES 		1,102,788 	45.79%

Turnout 84.16%
Rejected ballots 2,262
I am astonished by the small size of Scotland's population. O_o The state of Indiana has more people than that. 5.3 million (2013 estimate) for Scotland versus 6.6 million (2013 estimate) for Indiana. I also don't understand how 2.4 million can somehow equate 84% of the electorate for a nation of 5.3 million. I understand that the under-18s (or under-20s or 21s or whatever the hell it is in Scotland) can't vote, but surely everyone else can. And surely Scotland is not 40% under-18s or some such. Anyway ...

Looks like I we get to keep our Union Jack. Yay. And it looks like we'll all get to see what happens with Scotland in the coming months and years.
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Old 09-19-2014, 01:43 AM   #256
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Yeah there are a few English policy wonks I know who really wanted t
Scotland to leave because of how much they cost the rest of the country. A naive perspective in my view.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:36 AM   #257
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talon87 View Post
As of 5:30am in the UK, the current results reported by the BBC are:
Code:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
NO 		1,305,388 	54.21%
YES 		1,102,788 	45.79%

Turnout 84.16%
Rejected ballots 2,262
I am astonished by the small size of Scotland's population. O_o The state of Indiana has more people than that. 5.3 million (2013 estimate) for Scotland versus 6.6 million (2013 estimate) for Indiana. I also don't understand how 2.4 million can somehow equate 84% of the electorate for a nation of 5.3 million. I understand that the under-18s (or under-20s or 21s or whatever the hell it is in Scotland) can't vote, but surely everyone else can. And surely Scotland is not 40% under-18s or some such. Anyway ...

Looks like I we get to keep our Union Jack. Yay. And it looks like we'll all get to see what happens with Scotland in the coming months and years.
Actually, Scotland has a population of around 5.3 million, which is approximately the size of Indiana. Those results that the BBC reported were not complete yet. But yes, your point still stands. 5 million is not a lot, but then again, Europe has some absurdly small countries with populations that don't even reach 1 million. I'm looking at you, Luxembourg.

The results are still being tallied, but right now, it's a resounding No vote, with 56% of people voting No. Salmond has delivered his concession speech, Darling has given his victory speech, and the people of London are apparently ecstatic, with the Sun declaring that this is the "Reclaimed Kingdom" or the "Reunited Kingdom".

Interestingly, the bigger cities like Glasgow had declared obviously in favour of a Yes vote, which is why the Yes Camp was so confident why they'd win: the multiple counties that voted against Independence (i.e. Shetland, Orkney, Clarkmannshire, etc.) are quite small and less likely to have a strong presence on social media.

Either way, I'm glad that the Union stayed together. Had Scotland actually gained independence, that would give credence to the more aggressive Catalan Independence movement and the Welsh Independence movement. And I hate arguing slippery slopes, but those would not necessarily be good outcomes from an economics perspective.
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Old 09-19-2014, 08:35 AM   #258
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If there's one thing I hate, it's someone trying to correct me by providing me the very information I opened my post with. Not going to bother reading past the first sentence of a tl;dr? Then please don't bother with a reply period.



In lighter news, a nice infographic put together by the Economist.

In darker news, Piers Morgan apparently vowed to return to the United States if the No vote should have won. Well it did win, and now people are calling for his return to our country. I had no idea we had successfully managed to kick him out but I do know that we sure as hell do not want him back. He's your problem, guys. Quit trying to pass him along to the rest of us.
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Old 09-19-2014, 10:00 AM   #259
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55% of scottish people are fucking retards.

I'm both utterly enraged and straight up suicidally depressed at these results. It's so bad I'm actually renouncing my british citizenship. I no longer want to be classed as Scottish OR British, I'm that disgusted by these results. So much for Scotland ever wiping the cancer that is unity off itself.

And those subhuman species celebrating in London can all die of a horrible disease, the whole lot of em. I'm that fucked off.
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Old 09-19-2014, 10:28 AM   #260
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Another helpful infographic. This one offers the breakdown by age. To the surprise of absolutely no one, younger voters preference change while older voters preference the status quo.

However, that 18-24 demographic sure is interesting. Only 48% voted Yes. On either side they are sandwiched by young voters who went the other way. I wonder what it is about the 18-24 demographic specifically that explains this.

If the 18-24s had mostly voted Yes, then the next nearest group to mostly vote No would have been the 55-64s. I wonder then just how much of Scotland is 18-24 and just how much of it is 55+ for the results to have still managed to come out as 55% No 45% Yes for the entire nation.
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Old 09-19-2014, 10:33 AM   #261
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It turns out unsurprisingly that quite a few of the No voters broke several rules of poll honour.

By which I mean some No voting carers wheeled in dementia patients and got extra Nos from them via proxy (which should be a capital punishment) while there's been evidence of vote fixing at polling stations towards No voters as well.

In all fairness, due to this there should be a revote. Will there be? No, because Westminster is run by nazis.

And the biggest flaw is that quite a lot of Scotland's population consists of old bastards who won't live long enough to feel the wrath of fascist England's very likely countermeasures for the Scots even daring to rebel against Their Lords And Masters. It goes without saying why I'm so berserk here.
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Old 09-19-2014, 11:08 AM   #262
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Skf, I'd have voted Yes if I lived in Scotland (although being as I don't I'm pleased with the No outcome because it provides a nice political counterweight to the more right-leaning, anti-EU parts of the country) but you're being absurd. For pretty much every aspect of your day to day lives independence would've made little to no difference. Also if you want to play the "which nation of the UK gets most shafted by the current government distribution of powers", England gets the most shafted hands down. Scotland probably does the best out of the home nations with the current set up. Practically speaking the outcome boils down;

a) How much do you like the EU. Scotland in general heavily favours it (although Spain would've done everything in its power to make staying in/joining very hard for you) whereas Britain in general leans towards leaving and may well do so in the next 5-10 years. Side note; odd that the SNP has issues taking directives from Westminster but not from Brussels.

b) Would you prefer elections to be Labour vs Tory or Labour vs SNP. But honestly, with the substantial devolved powers Scotland already wields and the substantially more powers already voted through last year and coming into effect in a year or two, the Westminster government already doesn't mean all that much to Scotland beyond foreign policy and defence.

The practical difference to Scots between a Yes and a No vote is likely to be minimal.

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If the 18-24s had mostly voted Yes, then the next nearest group to mostly vote No would have been the 55-64s. I wonder then just how much of Scotland is 18-24 and just how much of it is 55+ for the results to have still managed to come out as 55% No 45% Yes for the entire nation.
Iirc Scotland, like the rest of the UK, has quite a significantly ageing population due to the postwar generation growing old. It's actually a pretty big problem - we're a fairly densely populated country so it's hard to build significant numbers of new houses and they've reached the stage where their children have moved out but they're still living 1-2 people in a 4-6 person family home they've lived in for years - net result, a comparison of house prices for new families as compared to their income has become much, much less favourable that it has been in a long time. Efforts to fix this (for example the so called "bedroom tax" for people with more rooms than they actually have any use for) have proved unpopular, but practically speaking the older generation is denying the current 20's generation the same opportunities to get onto the housing market that they had. It's the rallying cry of "bawwwwww forcing me out of the house I've lived in for 30 years" which actually translates to "I've had the opportunity to develop lovely memories and attachment to my own home and am quite willing to deny the younger generation the same opportunity".
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Old 09-19-2014, 11:16 AM   #263
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Oh look, what a coincidence.
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Old 09-19-2014, 11:23 AM   #264
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The Bedroom tax is unpopular because it's extortion, and because many of the houses here are, quite frankly, shitholes. We've moved a good 6 times or so in the past decade and every house we've been in has flaws, from rodent invasion (our cat had a field day) and size issues (not enough room to swing said cat in) to the house itself literally falling apart before our eyes (The cellar roof fucking caved in) and even this one's got the flaw of being a converted flat, meaning loads of bloody stairs, lack of garden and one single cupboard for storing our unwanted shit (my room's the backup storage ffs).

And as for the Labour vs Tories argument, the Tories are by far much worse than Labour ever was. If by some horrendous circumstances them and UKIP join forces and win the next election, I'm joining the Jihadis.
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Old 09-19-2014, 05:19 PM   #265
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ANYWAY

With Scotland still in the game, what does this hold for next May? The Tories are clearly not the most popular party in the world, the Lib Dems are probably going to tank. Are Labour popular enough to win control?

I've forgotten what Kush told me in the pub lol
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Old 09-19-2014, 05:32 PM   #266
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I'm still predicting Labour minority at this point, Lib Dems around 25 seats propping them up on a confidence and supply basis, UKIP with two seats, the Greens with one or two, the SNP probably moderately diminished and Plaid doing whatever Plaid does. I'm just now getting to grips with NI politics but I don't foresee too much change.
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Old 09-19-2014, 05:42 PM   #267
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>Lib Dem 25 seats

If the Lib Dems really do lose half their seats (and you're also calling losses by the SNP and minimal gains for UKIP), surely one of the two main parties will pick up enough to control a majority? Those seats have to go somewhere. I would say most likely a small Labour majority at the next election - the disaffected Lib Dem voters are going to be the ones least happy with the Con-Lib coalition so Labour seems the most likely to jump ship to, and if the SNP are moderately down those seats will be picked up by Labour. The Scottish aren't going to elect Tory MPs.

Although I still struggle to accept that Ed Milliband can be seriously talked about as a potential future PM, and if it happens it'll be a result of the more anti-Tory Lib Dems jumping ship to the only other option available to them and UKIP cutting into Tory votes rather than any particular support for Ed.

I suppose the interesting/amusing thing will be that if the Lib Dems lose a significant vote share, UKIP manage to poll ~10%, the Tories lose some votes because when you've been in government people start to blame you for things and Labour (Milliband) aren't popular enough to pick up significant votes then we could see a lot of seats going with really low vote shares purely because of how split it is and FPTP being fundamentally stupid.
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Old 09-19-2014, 05:51 PM   #268
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The thought of Milliband as PM fills me with dread.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:00 PM   #269
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I'd anticipate a very even spread between Tory and Labour with several breakaway nationalists gaining steam in this scenario. Greens would take from LD, Labour from all comers, UKIP from all comers, Tories from LD.

Miliband would be better at PM than he is at LoO in my view.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:19 PM   #270
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The Bedroom tax is unpopular because it's extortion, and because many of the houses here are, quite frankly, shitholes. We've moved a good 6 times or so in the past decade and every house we've been in has flaws, from rodent invasion (our cat had a field day) and size issues (not enough room to swing said cat in) to the house itself literally falling apart before our eyes (The cellar roof fucking caved in) and even this one's got the flaw of being a converted flat, meaning loads of bloody stairs, lack of garden and one single cupboard for storing our unwanted shit (my room's the backup storage ffs).
Fail to see what the fact that you've lived (none of which, from the sounds of it, meant you had spare bedrooms and thus none of which would've cost a penny in bedroom tax) has to do with it. If anything, this should push you in favour of the bedroom tax - if it's successful, the increase in available housing would drive house prices down and make it much easier for your family to get less shithole housing. Bedroom tax can be nothing but good for people in the situation you've just described because it won't cost you a thing but will make it easier for you to afford better housing.

This country has a serious shortage of available affordable housing. There are three ways out of this - we accept the screwing over of a generations attempts to get on the property ladder (no), we build shittons more houses (at which point everyone screams "not in my backyard") or we do something about the large numbers of the postwar generation with one or two people occupying four to six peoples worth of house (at which point they all complain about being forced out of houses they've lived in for forty years whilst happily ignoring the fact they're denying a generation the same opportunity). If people want to avoid bedroom tax, it's very simple - they stop being so bloody selfish.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:25 PM   #271
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They'll all be dead in 5 years time, so it's no huge issue really.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:29 PM   #272
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We're talking the 60-70 generation - the issue has been around for a good decade or more and they'll be alive and causing the same issues for another 10-20 years with life expectancy. That's 20-30 years worth of new families screwed out of the same opportunities they had (probably more - think how long people live after their children have all moved out. We're talking a good thirty or forty years). That little rant you just had about your family going through multiple shitholes? That's the very issue bedroom tax is looking to solve. People get persuaded to move out of houses that can house extra people, house prices for family homes go down and and your family can afford a nicer place for the price they're currently moving about what you described as shitholes.

And then when people get forced into renting because they can't afford the deposit, the rent costs them more a month than a mortgage would and completely bleeds their ability to save up enough to get out of that situation. Unless of course your parents are loaded and can help you out.

But no, it was proposed by the party you don't favour so you've had a kneejerk reaction to hate it without the slightest bit of thought. The Tea Party mentality at its finest.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:45 PM   #273
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I'm just now getting to grips with NI politics but I don't foresee too much change.
I assure you, this is entirely accurate.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:57 PM   #274
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They'll all be dead in 5 years time, so it's no huge issue really.
Life expectancy of a 65 year old in the UK is ~20 more years.
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Old 09-20-2014, 12:44 PM   #275
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Another helpful infographic. This one offers the breakdown by age. To the surprise of absolutely no one, younger voters preference change while older voters preference the status quo.

However, that 18-24 demographic sure is interesting. Only 48% voted Yes. On either side they are sandwiched by young voters who went the other way. I wonder what it is about the 18-24 demographic specifically that explains this.

If the 18-24s had mostly voted Yes, then the next nearest group to mostly vote No would have been the 55-64s. I wonder then just how much of Scotland is 18-24 and just how much of it is 55+ for the results to have still managed to come out as 55% No 45% Yes for the entire nation.
apparently it's a meaningless statistic becsuse
the sample size is under 100.
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