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Old 03-02-2014, 01:51 PM   #1
Mercutio
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Empoleon In Soviet Russia, World War III starts you!

So it seems that reality is becoming a Jasper Fforde novel and we might be getting a war in the Crimea, even if it's just between Russia and Ukraine.

What do we think? Will this become a wider conflict? Will it fizzle out?
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Old 03-02-2014, 01:57 PM   #2
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The population of Crimea and the eastern part of Ukraine as a whole is largely Russian already. Most people speak Russian. Schools teach Russian. Many of the citizens identify more readily as Russians than Ukrainians.

I don't think the issue is going to erupt into World War III.
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Old 03-02-2014, 02:02 PM   #3
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Wow huh, so this really became a thing.
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Old 03-02-2014, 02:26 PM   #4
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Fun fact: The Crimea region is a Autonomous Republic within the Ukraine and already had a referendum planned to separate themselves from the Ukraine, and posibly go on as part of the Russian Federation, somewhere in May which will now be held on March 30.

Also: The Prime Minister of this Autonomous Republic has asked the Russians to help and as per usual everything gets blown way out of proportion and I don't really the "invasion" Ukraine is making this out to be. It might as well be an attempt to get more control of the Crimea themselves, which is probably the case as they don't really acknowledge/honor the autonomous status of the region as they should.

Add what Copygoo has already said and it's just a storm in a glass of water.
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Old 03-02-2014, 04:46 PM   #5
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While it makes light of the current situation in the Ukraine, this one guy's response to this image upload is simply too funny not to be shared:

Quote:
"The Olympics may be over, but the games have just begun!" - Putin
As for the thread ... I see little chance of this being a precursor to WW3.
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Old 03-02-2014, 04:58 PM   #6
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In A.D. twenty...fourteen.

War...was beginning.
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Old 03-02-2014, 05:04 PM   #7
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We're all gonna die!
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Old 03-02-2014, 07:44 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Escalion View Post
I don't really the "invasion" Ukraine is making this out to be.
Troops are being sent into a country to occupy a chunk of it without any permission from that countries government. What else is it? The PM of the Crimea has about the same authority to invite foreign troops into the Crimea as the Governor of a US state would to invite foreign troops into that state, to my understanding.
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Old 03-03-2014, 03:34 AM   #9
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So we have fizzling out as the main opinion. Hope so.

One could argue that since a lot of Russian speakers want to return to Russia, it'll end up being more like a peaceful ish annexation. However, yeah, it's an invasion.

I enjoy the West's protests over this, we've done this so much in recent years for worse reasons.
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Old 03-03-2014, 07:25 AM   #10
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So having not been paying all that much attention to the news my understanding of what's going on is limited. As best I can tell; Ukraine's old government decided "yay Russia" and "boo EU", which didn't go over too well with the Ukrainian people, and so riots and stuffs until along comes Ukraine's new government which is more "yay EU" and "boo Russia" and now Russia have decided that's a good reason to invade the bit of Ukraine that seems to desperately want to be in Russia and was in Russia until not all that long ago when it for some reason ended up being part of Ukraine.

Is that about right? And can someone explain to me in more detail what's going on?
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Old 03-03-2014, 10:19 AM   #11
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What you're saying is pretty much right Concept.

In a bit more detailed version though:

The population of mainland Ukraine is strongly in favor of getting closer ties to the EU instead of to Russia. That's what the whole rioting was about as indeed the old government was looking for closer ties with Russia. They terminated some treaties with the EU and that caused the first protests. And this ended up escalating in the biggest protest since the Orange Revolution, with lots of death and injuries.

Problem behind this invasion is that the Crimea region is mostly Russian, well over 50% is Russian, with the next biggest group being below 25%. And the Crimea populations wants closer ties with Russia and not the EU. They used to have their own Republic there, though the Bolsheviks took over at one point, the region stayed autonomous however. And as early as 1991 there has been referenda about where they should belong. All of which have been answered the same, the Crimea region should be an autonomous region within the Soviet Union / Russia. But the region stayed with the Ukraine when the Soviet Union fell apart and Ukraine became independent, probably because in 1954 it became part of the Ukrainian part of the Soviet Republic, even though the people of the Crimea wanted to be part of Russia then.

The people in the Crimea region and mainland Ukraine are really two different kinds of people. And Russia is now seeing it's chance to get back what once was theirs and to get the people of the Crimea where they really want to be, which is part of Russia. They have wanted that for a long time, and even had their own pro-Russia constitution at a point. But pressure from Ukraine caused them to drop it and follow more Ukrainian laws at the risk of losing their autonomous status if they didn't. And expectations are the new referendum to be held this month will have a similar outcome.
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Old 03-05-2014, 11:31 AM   #12
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Old 03-05-2014, 02:35 PM   #13
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Russia should just kill everybody This will probably fizzle out in some sort of treaty or annexation. I don't really see how Russia wanting a territory which wants to be with Russia causing any sort of World War or anything, although it might cause a whole bunch of arguments and/or deaths
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Old 03-05-2014, 04:43 PM   #14
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I don't think this will escalate much, though one can see some parallels to Hitler's annexation of parts of Czechoslovakia before World War II. Personally, I would think that Crimea should go over to the Russians, but that is just me.

We are all going to die.
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Old 03-05-2014, 05:07 PM   #15
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The population of crimea is mostly Russian, around sixty percent I believe, while the remaining forty percent is split between Ukrainians and Tatars. The only reason that crimea is even part of Ukraine today is because Khrushchev transferred it from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR back on the sixties.

Most of the people of crimea are pro-Russia and wish to become a part of that country. However, I font see Russia outright annexing crimea, I think that Putin will either make crimes onto a Russian puppet state witty limited recognition like South Ossetia and Abkhazia are, or keep it in Ukraine so that there will be more Russians in the country to vote the pro-Russian Party of Regions back into office next election.

There's also the fact that Yanukovich was illegally impeached since parliament rushed it through too fast which technically means that he is still president of Ukraine, which in turn gives the Russians the authority to be in the country since Yanukovich write a letter that was presented to the UN Security Council requesting Russian intervention.
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Old 03-05-2014, 05:14 PM   #16
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Quote:
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*snip*
I'd just like to add that most of eastern Ukraine as well as the entire coastal region of Ukraine is majority Russian or Russian speaking and are generally pro-Russia. This area includes the second largest city of Kharkov as well as the nations main seaport at Odessa.
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Old 03-05-2014, 08:59 PM   #17
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But let's not forget that only about 14% of Ukraine wants to be part of Russia.
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Old 03-05-2014, 09:11 PM   #18
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But let's not forget that only about 14% of Ukraine wants to be part of Russia.
What percent of India is Kashmir again?
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Old 03-05-2014, 09:24 PM   #19
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Population-wise? The state of Jammu and Kashmir is about 1% of the population of India, not sure how much Kashmir alone is. Now if you mean how many people in there want it to go to India or Pakistan or China then nobody really knows for sure because of the huge clusterfuckiness.
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Old 03-05-2014, 09:58 PM   #20
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Population-wise? The state of Jammu and Kashmir is about 1% of the population of India, not sure how much Kashmir alone is. Now if you mean how many people in there want it to go to India or Pakistan or China then nobody really knows for sure because of the huge clusterfuckiness.
My point simply was that even if we say "100% of Kashmir wants to be in India," it would likely be less than 14% of India both by population and by area. Thus, if we take seriously the idea of Kashmir's desire for a) autonomy, b) Indian rule, or c) Pakistani rule, then we should similarly take seriously Crimea's desire for a) autonomy, b) Russian rule, or c) Ukrainian rule.

14% is an awful lot of people for a country the size of the Ukraine. At even 25% or 30% of people wanting to secede from a nation, you typically get full-blown civil wars.
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Old 03-05-2014, 10:19 PM   #21
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Well I think the entire Kashmir issue is fucking stupid to start with, so...

Just that my point is that IMO you really can't justify Russian troops in Ukraine by saying some portion, WHATEVER portion below 50% of the entire country, says that they would rather be part of Crimea. In fact India just went through a whole fiasco with Telangana- didn't involve foreign troops obviously but splitting and making new states isn't easy.
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Old 03-05-2014, 11:39 PM   #22
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I'm not trying to say that all of the people in Ukraine are pro-Russia, I'm saying that a majority of people in Eastern Ukraine want Ukraine to have closer ties to Russia, this is also the area where all of the support for the Party of Regions, Yanukovich's party, comes from. The Western parts of Ukraine seem to mostly want to become closer to Europe and pull away from Russia.

http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interact...n_language.jpg

That's a good map that shows the current divide in Ukraine. The red regions have a large number or majority of Russian speakers who tend to support Russia, while the orange areas are almost all Ukrainian speaking and support the new government in Kiev for the most part. It's not really that simple but it's somewhat like that.
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Old 03-06-2014, 10:41 AM   #23
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So, things are going fast now. The government of the Crimea has unanimously voted to be part of the Russian Federation with immediate effect.
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Old 03-06-2014, 11:15 AM   #24
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Yeah Russia is doing really well at this.
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Old 03-06-2014, 11:58 AM   #25
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Welp.
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