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Old 11-02-2018, 04:14 PM   #1
Talon87
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LGPE Final Predictions

How do you think LGPE is going to fare in its opening month sales-wise?

Gross Sales: How many copies do you think it will sell in its opening week/month? How do you think it will compare sales-wise with past main series titles?

Demographics: Do you think it will sell well/poorly across the board? Or do you predict it selling really well with one or more demographics while selling really poorly with one or more other demographics?

Pikachu vs. Eevee: Which copy is going to sell more? And by how much?

Switch Sales: How many Switches do you think will be sold the week/month of LGPE's release? Would you view any of these Switch sales as coincidental, or would you credit LGPE for most of them?
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Old 11-02-2018, 04:41 PM   #2
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I think the opening sales will probably be big, but it's going to tank swiftly. It's not going to come anywhere close to past main-series titles, even the sequels and remakes. They're pushing for a wider audience that they're not sure is going to bite, and they're alienating most of their hard core with it.

Demographics, I'm thinking it'll probably appeal more to younger PoGo players. Most adults will probably have looked at the trailers and realised it's a lot more kiddish than most Pokemon, which already gets stick for being childish.

I think it'll probably see Eevee sell more than Pikachu. Pikachu's the mascot, but that's it. Eevee's cuter, and that's probably what the buyers will go for, given that the game's only actual selling point is the graphical beauty (which in all fairness it does have).

Console sales I think will probably not spike as much as fans and producers will hope for. I don't see it flogging new consoles like any of the main titles did for older consoles. The pull of the series rep will sell a few, but honestly that could backfire. I can actually see LGPE being a severe chunk of the Switch preowned bin at most videogame stores.
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Old 11-02-2018, 05:15 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talon87 View Post
How do you think LGPE is going to fare in its opening month sales-wise?

Gross Sales: How many copies do you think it will sell in its opening week/month? How do you think it will compare sales-wise with past main series titles?
I actually think its likely to do okay with sales. Not really good or bad but kind of sitting squarely in "mediocre". I think there will be a considerable number of people who buy this because the potential audience is wide, and it is not the best idea to discredit that, even if most of us here think the game is rather bad. It may not be bad sales wise.

Quote:
Demographics: Do you think it will sell well/poorly across the board? Or do you predict it selling really well with one or more demographics while selling really poorly with one or more other demographics?
It's hard to say for sure on demographics because typically if you look at something like age, I don't think the demographics will shift much in that regard. What I do see is a lot of potential buys from people who are new to the mainstream games and want to try them out but very poor sales from longtime fans.

Quote:
Pikachu vs. Eevee: Which copy is going to sell more? And by how much?
Almost certainly Pikachu, it is really not hard to see something with a lasting impact and memory as Pikachu has on people who are not even Pokemon fans.

Quote:
Switch Sales: How many Switches do you think will be sold the week/month of LGPE's release? Would you view any of these Switch sales as coincidental, or would you credit LGPE for most of them?
I don't know necessarily how many, but we might see some from parents buying children a Switch for the first time. I think something like Breath of the Wild has done more for Switch sales than what I would expect for LGPE.
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Old 11-02-2018, 06:36 PM   #4
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It's going to bomb right from the outset.

Pikachu will outsell Eeevee by a longshot. I think Eevee's popularity with casuals is exaggerated by online communities.

I think LGPE will drive Switch sales but since we're also heading into the holiday season, it'll probably not be coincidental, but lightly correlated.
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Old 11-03-2018, 08:52 AM   #5
Talon87
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Gross Sales: I'm going to guess 2 million in sales opening week, 3.5 million in sales opening month. For comparison, XY sold 4 million in its opening week and 11.6 million in its first five months.

Demographics: I think we will see obvious patterns like:
  • majority of sales matching up with preexisting PoGo players
  • college-age casuals being one big demographic
  • very young (ages 4-8) children being a second big demographic
  • utter lack of sales with teenagers
  • poor sales with hardcore Pokémon fans (e.g. UPNers, Serebii vets, Bulba vets, Smogon vets, etc, who otherwise still play the main series games)
I don't expect to see any differences in gender. I think there may be a small uptick in sales likelihood if you're Japanese, vs. a small downtick in sales likelihood if you're American, European, or Australian. But only small; I don't think regional market differences will account for too much difference in sales.

Pikachu vs. Eevee: I think Pikachu will sell more copies internationally, but that it will be a demography breakdown: the college-age casuals will have a predilection towards Eevee, while the ages 4-8 demographic will swarm towards Pikachu. In the end, I'll hazard the blind guess of 60% of all sales in the opening month will be the Pikachu version vs. 40% of all sales in the opening month will be the Eevee version. And for what it's worth: when hardcore Pokémon players pick LGPE up, I think they will display a strong bias towards the Eevee version. Blind guess of 75% Eevee 25% Pikachu sales among the Pokéfaithful.

Switch Sales: I think Switch sales will be kinda lackluster. Not abysmal but not what Nintendo was wanting out of a Pokémon launch either. There's already discussion about Switch market saturation and the need for a) a price drop or b) a hardware revision to get more households to buy Switches. Normally, Pokémon would be the game to sell old, price-set hardware despite such gossip. It's what XY did with the 3DS, 3DS XL, and nascent 2DS back in 2013. But with LGPE, I don't think that many Switches are going to leave store shelves. In short, it's not the console seller it ought to be as a Pokémon main series title. But enough with the chitchat: throwing out baseless number claims, I'll hazard the guess that LGPE's opening weekend will see Switch sales total 750,000 and that its opening month will see Switch sales total 1.25 million. In other words: a little less than half of people who buy LGPE will also need to be a Switch to go with it. The rest will have already bought one for Breath of the Wild, Mario Odyssey, or any of the other games currently out for Switch.
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