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Old 11-06-2012, 12:56 AM   #1
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Electile Dysfunction 2012: 'Merica Strikes Back

Heyo! Election day discussion lives here, so as not to spam a debate thread with non-debatey issues.

Results, thoughts, who's voting where, all that is fair game.

Discuss away, friends.
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Old 11-06-2012, 12:58 AM   #2
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Yay, new thread!

I'm effing excited, it looks like a state (Maryland! And maybe two with Washington!) might finally have marriage equality by popular vote after being voted down 31 times before I believe.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:00 AM   #3
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Seems kinda sad and pathetic for that thread to be defanged at the final hour. ^^;
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:03 AM   #4
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Seems kinda sad and pathetic for that thread to be defanged at the final hour. ^^;
With UM gone there wasn't much debate anyway. It's kinda more appropriately placed here.

We can always go back to arguing over actually controversial candidates, like that "Rent is too damn high" guy and Ron Paul next year.

In any event, I'm also feeling like Romney is going to get a large percentage of the popular vote. I think this is the first election in my life time I've been... I dunno, really deeply concerned over?

It's a strange mix of vague, ill-defined fear and quiet optimism over Obama's prospects.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:06 AM   #5
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Copying what I said in the debate thread, my shameless predictions are:

Popular vote: Romney, by greater than 0.5% but less than 2%
Electoral vote: Obama, narrowly

Now watch as Obama wins 350 EC votes. Or as Romney wins the entire election. But for now, at 1:06am, there are my shameless predictions informed by whatall's been reported in the final days leading up to the election.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:07 AM   #6
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Not to be a total downer about things, but I seriously doubt either one of them will get anything done as long as Congress is split. I haven't heard about any big swings in either the Senate or the House, so it seems like they will keep their respective majorities this time around (I could be wrong about this, feel free to correct me).
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:11 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Itzatrap View Post
Yay, new thread!

I'm effing excited, it looks like a state (Maryland! And maybe two with Washington!) might finally have marriage equality by popular vote after being voted down 31 times before I believe.
^ Also, this is wonderful news. I never, ever understood differentiation between same-sex and 'traditional' marriage. Maybe that's because I haven't been super religious since I was 12, but it literally makes no sense to me.

As for Talon's predictions: that seems plausible to me. I guess we'll have to wait to see how it goes, and pray there are no Florida-level recount fiasco's, but (speaking as impartially as I can) I honestly think Obama's going to pull the EC numbers for a second term.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:22 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Tyranidos View Post
Not to be a total downer about things, but I seriously doubt either one of them will get anything done as long as Congress is split. I haven't heard about any big swings in either the Senate or the House, so it seems like they will keep their respective majorities this time around (I could be wrong about this, feel free to correct me).
Nope, it doesn't look like it'll change much. You can check out FiveThirtyEight if you want to see the odds. House will almost definitely stay Republican though, unfortunately. =/

I might have said Mitt would win the popular vote by around a point or more before Sandy occurred with Obama barely winning if he won at all, but it seems Sandy stopped any momentum Mitt had.
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^ Also, this is wonderful news. I never, ever understood differentiation between same-sex and 'traditional' marriage. Maybe that's because I haven't been super religious since I was 12, but it literally makes no sense to me.

Yes, I'm hoping with all my might that at least one passes. It would be devastating if neither passed. The other two states, Maine and Minnesota, are basically equally uncertain.



Edit: Basically a lot of things happened in the last week, including Mitt lying more about Jeep moving jobs to China, Colin Powell and Bloomberg endorsements, fake disaster relief event, etc.

Edit 2: It didn't help that the only thing Romney was able to do this week was to get Obama's Vote for revenge or at least it is the only thing I remember reading.

Last edited by Itzatrap; 11-06-2012 at 01:52 AM.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:55 AM   #9
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I LEGITIMATELY THOUGHT THIS WAS A SPAMBOT THREAD.

Imagine my disappointment.
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Old 11-06-2012, 01:56 AM   #10
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I LEGITIMATELY THOUGHT THIS WAS A SPAMBOT THREAD.

Imagine my disappointment.
I am so very sorry.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:04 AM   #11
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Anyway, forecasts from a political scientist.

I think Romney has a pretty good chance of winning, about 45%. That's a number totally out of my heel, but it represents the idea that Romney's chances are close to a coin flip. Popular vote wise, he'll definitely do way better than people expect, especially since North East is flooded and people are going to be disinclined to head to the polls given that.

Romney isn't an ideal candidate, though. When looking at presidential candidates, negatives impact voting way more than positives enhance them; McCain in this regard was one of the strongest, and perhaps most enticing Republican candidates. He's a tide-and-true moderate who masqueraded as a conservative (it didn't work) and with his experience and connections, he stood to make a much better impact in the presidency than Obama ever would have. However, Romney is not McCain, and is far inferior in credentials and record (given the Bain Capital stuff), but he's going up against a heavily weakened Obama. The evangelical christian cohort which spit on McCain has seen first-hand that the alternative so someone who's even slightly closer to their ideology is better than abstaining from voting, and that block is homogenous (and organized) enough to be the new silent majority. Obama's the president and that gives him an immense advantage, but Romney's been pretty impressive given what he had to work with. He'll do better than John Kerry, I'm sure.

I'm curious what the social media hipsters will do. Honestly, I have no idea. On the one hand, a lot of them are un-employed. On the other hand, some people vote with party affiliation on blind devotion. So who knows?

Either way, I cashed my stocks in before the election, since the stock market will probably take a hit no matter who wins. Everyone loses, but I!
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:08 AM   #12
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Lil' Bluey

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I LEGITIMATELY THOUGHT THIS WAS A SPAMBOT THREAD.

Imagine my disappointment.
So did I. ^^; I came here ready to kick some spambutt. =(
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:09 AM   #13
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So did I. ^^; I came here ready to kick some spambutt. =(
It says right in the list that the thread was started by me.

I see how you people think of me now.
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Old 11-06-2012, 02:10 AM   #14
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It says right in the list that the thread was started by me.

I see how you people think of me now.
I originally came through Who's Online. Just saw someone looking at it, didn't know who posted it. =/ Sorry. *hugs*

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Old 11-06-2012, 02:14 AM   #15
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^ You know, I'm an idiot. I'd completely forgotten the effect Sandy is gonna have on the voting numbers, which is ridiculous because I'm on the East coast like 2/3 times a year.

But I'm voting from Indiana, not New York, and so that will make my Obama vote moooost likely not count for a damn thing.

Lilblue- I was kidding ^^ No worries

Edit: Apparently people on the East coast are being given the opportunity to vote via email. I haven't watched the news in the last couple days (I'm horrible, I know) so I'm just hearing about this via the Retsutalk podcast. So there's that.

Last edited by tau; 11-06-2012 at 02:24 AM.
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:48 AM   #16
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I don't think Romney will win the popular vote, but I actually kind of hope he does-if the Republicans get pissed off about the electoral college results we may actually have a chance of doing away with that archaic and idiotic system. Once the change starts there may actually be a path for preferential voting in the states, which would be absolutely awesome.

I'm fairly confident in Obama winning the popular vote narrowly and the electoral vote comfortably, however
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Old 11-06-2012, 03:56 AM   #17
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Wait, people are actually still taking the election seriously?

Either way the country is fucked, it's just that Obama is by far the lesser of the two evils and will hopefully take at least a couple more years of lubing up before ramming a fourteen incher up the US's collective ass.

But regardless, my prediction is that Romney will win the popular vote, partially due to the flooding on the east coat (even with being able to email in your vote), and partially due to the fact that his big crowd is a bunch of yahoos with no brains, and a lot of the people who do have a brain will actually refuse to register to vote due to the fact that they know that both of them are complete assclowns and they're not going to get put on a list that allows you to get stuck with shitty things like jury duty in order to support either of them.

As for the electoral college, however... flip a coin, the east coast being under water takes the entire election and throws it into a flaming dumpster of chaos and all the melted ice cream from the mass power outages, allowing the entire world to watch as it simultaneously seeps down into the ground, making the area around it completely fucked over for a while, and goes up IN FLAMES to spread to the rest of the world.

Edit: Wow... didn't realize how much of a dick I sound like when I talk about politics.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:24 AM   #18
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I am fully preparing my body in advance for the fact that Romney may indeed be the winner. I am already almost at peace with this fact. Angry, but at peace. What will happen will happen, and I have no control over it. The best I can hope for at that point is that the reason behind his flip flops and terrible taste in right wing politics is because he was so moderate that he needed to pander to Republicans - and that, in the event he does take office, will rule as a moderate and not the conservative we've seen him as.

But - my state doesn't matter. I wish I could vote in Hamilton County OH where it does - but now that I am not, and since a vote for Obama in Kentucky would be pointless, the only thing I can hope to do is send a message that third parties need more attention by voting for Gary Johnson.
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:30 AM   #19
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I'd vote Jill Stein before Johnson
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Old 11-06-2012, 04:47 AM   #20
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Jill Stein is too far left for me. I also disagree with her on a few issues, but hell, I will happily applaud anyone who votes for her.

Edit: Just got back from throwing my vote away. And I'm quite proud of it
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:44 AM   #21
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Edit: Just got back from throwing my vote away. And I'm quite proud of it
Holy shit. I was going to commission Daisy to draw me a button with words to that effect for me to use as my avatar today. She was a bit swamped, though, so she couldn't (still luv you, Daisy <3). Couldn't use MOAR to find one because I wanted it to be a surprise.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:08 AM   #22
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Didn't vote. Don't see the difference practically.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:13 AM   #23
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This isn't over yet? Argh.

>Didn't vote. Don't see the difference practically.

Tragedy of the Commons.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:17 AM   #24
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It would be interesting to see how election results changed if voting were compulsory.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:25 AM   #25
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I sometimes wish it was. The main argument against it, though, is that you'd have a ton of uneducated voters voting, which might cause trouble. But honestly, that's not too different than how it is now.
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