03-15-2016, 03:24 PM | #1101 | ||
Problematic Fave
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Quote:
Trump exaggerates, Politifact claims Pants On Fire. Hillary lies, Politifact finds reasons why they're sort of true. I've seen the lies! She says she always opposed LGBT rights. She said she "didn't know where Sanders was when she tried to pass health care all those years ago" (guess who was standing behind her on the podium). None of these things made it onto Politifact... It's really frustrating to see a normally unbiased source fall so far, especially since they still claim themselves to be unbiased. Quote:
a.) The American coed service has a HUGE problem with sexual assault. It's absolutely massive. Those facts and figures are 100% true - there are tens of thousands of unreported sexual assaults in the American military, and only a couple hundred convictions. Only 588 were even brought to trial. b.) You think that bringing this problem to light is "co-opting the horrific struggle of sexual assault survivors"? Do these sexual assault survivors just not count? Is it because they brought it on themselves by joining a coed military? c.) That's not going to happen without real consequences for sexual assault. Tens of thousands of men have successfully gotten away with sexual assault because the military didn't want to do anything about it. Clearly they can't keep it in their pants, and clearly they will continue not to keep it in their pants, and yet the military does nothing. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/ar...sault-victims/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual...tates_military http://www.protectourdefenders.com/factsheet/
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03-15-2016, 03:40 PM | #1102 |
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Oh, brother...
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03-15-2016, 04:00 PM | #1103 |
Ducks gonna duck
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I've never seen someone so expertly misinterpret and twist my words to accuse me of the things I was accusing someone else of. I'm genuinely impressed.
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03-15-2016, 04:04 PM | #1104 |
I make cryin' babies weep
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You're doing it again @Deo.
But anyways, Shuckle I don't think Josh was saying that it wasn't a problem by the "expecting them to be decent human beings" statement. And to be completely fair, based on the tweet alone and no other quotes he may have said on the issue, it's too vague to completely pass judgement on what he meant. Both Shuckle and Josh's interpretations are completely valid based on that tweet alone. He could mean that they should be separated, but he could mean that the military was stupid for doing it without any measures of precaution for the people involved to help prevent this very real thing from happening. You can make assumption based on his other stances, sure, but in my opinion, Trump's too much of a wild card and I still have trouble believing he'll do half of what he says.
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03-15-2016, 04:24 PM | #1105 |
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How about we move to a more fun subject and with the big primaries' polls closing in about two hours, let's make some predictions on where we think states will end up going.
Personally I'm thinking Sanders will take Missouri and Illinois, Ohio is really a tossup but if I have to choose I'll say Clinton has it, and then Florida and North Carolina both are Clinton. On the Republican side, Trump will have Illinois and Florida for certain, Kasich will take Ohio, and I suspect Trump will win both Missouri and North Carolina as well but I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz won either or both. So, for simplicity: Florida: Clinton, Trump Ohio: Clinton, Kasich Illinois: Sanders, Trump Missouri: Sanders, Trump North Carolina: Clinton, Trump |
03-15-2016, 04:25 PM | #1106 |
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03-15-2016, 04:26 PM | #1107 |
Barghest Barghest Barghe-
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Miror, the hero the Debate forum needs.
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03-15-2016, 04:33 PM | #1108 |
Snackin'
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[3/14/2016 10:04:25 PM] MMS: Bernie will take Illinois and Missouri by sizable margins, eek out a win in Ohio, come close in Florida (say, 10 points down or less) and keep NC to 15 or 20
[3/14/2016 10:04:39 PM] MMS: those're my predictions and it'd be awesome if I'm somehow right XD [3/14/2016 10:04:43 PM] Miror: Mhm XD [3/14/2016 10:05:11 PM] Miror: Anything besides Trump on Republican? XDXD [3/14/2016 10:06:43 PM] MMS: I'll say Kasich will win Ohio, Rubio will drop out, Cruz will win Missouri [3/14/2016 10:06:48 PM] MMS: Trump gets everything else My predictions from last night. *crosses fingers they ring true* Also @Shuckle Sorry but you don't get to contest one part of my argument with the classic "bawww liberal media" argument that literally every conservative candidate and pundit makes and then not even acknowledge the rest of it and act like you won :v |
03-15-2016, 04:37 PM | #1109 |
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Oh also, something intriguing for the Democratic side that I already have talked to Snorby about but it's concerning the whole polling situation with Michigan, where Sanders had his incredible comeback since the polling was so off. Well, with the vast majority of polls, they tend to focus on the "likely voters" demographic, typically meaning those who have participated in the most recent presidential primaries/caucuses for the particular party. Hence, they focus a lot on those who voted in 2008. Michigan (and Florida, which will matter later) moved their primary to before when the DNC wanted them to have them, and thus were penalized at the time by having none of their delegates count towards the nomination. Since that occurred, Obama didn't even put his name on the ballot in Michigan, turnout in both states was quite a bit lower than usual, and it was mostly Clinton supporters who did turn out.
Now, fast forward to present day. Polling focuses on the groups that voted in 2008, who were mostly Clinton people as per the unique situation. This ended up skewing polling very much in her favor, leaving news outlets and pundits alike with the firm belief that Michigan was solidly in Clinton's camp. As it turns out, that wasn't the case. But if that sort of situation happened in Michigan, what's to prevent the same from having happened in Florida? I still suspect Clinton will win the state just due to the particular voting blocks, but it could be a much closer race than we think. Or I could just be talking out my hat and be entirely wrong concerning Florida but hey, I won't be wrong for long at least lol |
03-15-2016, 05:14 PM | #1110 | |
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Quote:
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03-15-2016, 07:42 PM | #1111 |
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Time to get dangerously drunk.
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03-15-2016, 08:14 PM | #1112 |
時の彼方へ
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For those who aren't mind readers, Sanders is newly projected to have lost both Florida and Ohio. His victory in Michigan led many to anticipate an Ohio win, and he needed to win either Florida or Ohio to realistically still be in this race as both states award gobs of delegates. Clinton winning both states all but ends Sanders' campaign. Particularly since the loss in Ohio means we can no longer count on states culturally similar to Michigan to vote for Sanders.
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03-15-2016, 08:17 PM | #1113 |
Snackin'
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Do me a solid and buy me one.
Or twenty. *shot* |
03-15-2016, 08:34 PM | #1114 |
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So this is it, huh...? America is gonna put two corrupt liars who will say anything to get elected... Both of who have no respect for Internet privacy or surveillance... Both who support fracking, one who wants to abolish the EPA and end environmental regulations... One is a briber and the other takes the bribes... One of who has no gauge and will spout hatred all day long... All because one looks "alpha" and tough and the other has "experience".
You tell the average American "gullible" is written on the ceiling, they'll look up. Guess America gets what it deserves after all |
03-15-2016, 08:39 PM | #1115 | |
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Quote:
Sensitive topic under the spoiler: Spoiler: show |
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03-15-2016, 08:43 PM | #1116 |
我が名は勇者王!
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Just don't take this disappointment too hard and go permanently disillusioned with the politics.
I've seen two generations of liberals - both of my Dad's (who were heartbroken after Robert Kennedy's murder) and my own (after 2004) lose faith in the system and go hardcore neocon. People give up when they think they can't change the system, and their mindset turns toward "milk without guilt". That's the worst. Hence why I gave VGM that compliment earlier. He's still the same guy arguing about politics 10 years later. If people don't lose that enthusiasm, hope for change will never fade.
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03-15-2016, 08:48 PM | #1117 |
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Politics is a game and sadly Bernie was not playing it as well as Hillary has, or at the very least had a pretty big disadvantage going in and wasn't able to outplay Hillary enough to catch up.
I really think that once this election blows over that we'll all forget about the primaries and nothing will really change in American politics. Even if Bernie were to win the candidacy and the election, I don't think he would be substantially more effective than pretty much anyone else. Presidential elections are given all this focus but when it comes down to it, nearly everyone comes to the middle or sits on the fringes and does nothing and if a president manages to stay in office long enough, they might be able to choke one substantial thing through Congress once it's been chopped up enough. More people should talk about Congressional elections. They're what actually matter in US government. |
03-15-2016, 08:54 PM | #1118 |
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To be fair, this night was never really supposed to be an excellent night for Sanders, it's really the next month or two that really are favorable for him. Basically every state the rest of this month will be likely to go his way bar potentially Arizona, with the biggest catches being Washington and Wisconsin. With Wisconsin we get into April, which dramatically shifts to New England with basically every remaining state up there which are all basically toss ups, even potentially New York but I personally think it's a bit unlikely. And then we're into May and June, which split things pretty evenly. So hope isn't lost completely yet on that front, though it's looking less like Sanders will have a majority and more of he'll now have to go the route to try to end up with a brokered convention, though with super delegates in play that makes it especially difficult.
On the Republican side, Rubio is gone and I wouldn't doubt most of his support and donors end up with Cruz and Kasich as opposed to Trump, but I don't see much else coming out of things tonight outside of Kasich clinging to life and the not-Trumps continuing on the path to stop him at the convention. We'll see how things develop. But yeah, the participation in offyear elections is so embarrassingly low as well as just anything relating to the legislative branch in general, and considering how Congress continues to have an approval rating in the teens and lower (and approval of their own congressional representatives continues to lower too so it's not like everyone loves their incumbents either), if voters were actually motivated, educated, and cared, we might see some actual changes. But, since they don't, we'll just be stuck in the same quagmire as usual. |
03-15-2016, 08:56 PM | #1120 |
我が名は勇者王!
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Jeri, I think we need some more hard facts about rapes in the military before we can take action against it.
I don't necessarily disagree with anything you've said, but I highly suspect that the rapes in the military are being caused by the same issues that lead to rape in civilization, but it's magnified due to the outrage factor of it happening in an organization already under scrutiny, and maybe the military has a selection bias that would select for people more likely to rape. I've heard, for example, in the Marine Corps if there's a woman in a regiment, every male in the regiment will have proposed to her once during the length of their service time. It's really a proximity thing...and makes me want to start a debate about the nature of relationships.
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03-15-2016, 09:05 PM | #1121 |
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Considering he basically represents the establishment in an election that is railing against it, I would suspect not, but hey, Clinton's doing well despite it. Kasich also has a broader appeal by being slightly less conservative than the rest of the lot (which is actually only Cruz and Trump now, yeesh), and being a far more positive candidate as of late than his competitors in addition to having governing experience. He'd be an excellent candidate in say, the prior two elections, but this one is so focused against the perceived establishment that unfortunately for him, he will likely be stuck where he's at. A good 2020 candidate if Republicans don't net the presidency this year I would think.
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03-15-2016, 09:06 PM | #1122 | |
Archbishop of Banterbury
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On the Republican side; looks like Kasich held Ohio and Trump took everything else. I hear Rubio is dropping out after losing Florida. Hope to hell he comes out in favour of Kasich in the coming days but suspect it more likely he'll back Cruz. In the category of "vague ray of hope" though, Trump still has fewer delegates than all the non-Trumps combined so... hope for a brokered convention?
EDIT the first: Late to the party! Had the thread open a while.
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Last edited by Concept; 03-15-2016 at 09:13 PM. |
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03-15-2016, 09:11 PM | #1123 | |
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Yeah, the military probably has selection bias towards the more violently or aggressively inclined people, but it's not really a good excuse. Even in spite of the sexual assault issue, they should be seeking to deal with and get rid of these kinds of people in the first place. I'm sure that a military leader would agree that a soldier that seeks to harm his fellow fighters is counterproductive to pretty much every goal the military could have. And... what? Aside from the fact that that sounds like hearsay, that does not relate in the slightest. Rape is not sex, it's violence. Rapists aren't looking for love or intimacy, they're looking for control. I'm pretty sure that most people can agree with me that if a man develops legitimate feelings for a woman that he is not looking to rape her - probably quite the opposite. |
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03-15-2016, 09:41 PM | #1124 | |||||
我が名は勇者王!
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Quote:
I'm interested in the demographic, division trends. The Air Force, for example, has the highest number of women enlisted. You would suspect, then, that the Air Force would have the highest number of rapes if the only independent variable on rape was "branch size". Google tells me this: Quote:
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The problem is, if the very first crime someone ever commits is a rape, can you really say the women were adequately protected? What about women in society at larger? Hence why I say this is more a function of society than anything else...rapes are more likely to happen in rural towns where there is a high male/female ratio. This is why the "co-ed is to blame" argument has some teeth. I think you're giving too much credit to men, especially the kind of men who want to be enlisted Marines. These are men who, without the control of officers or fear of punishment, will fall back on their most aggressive instincts. Quote:
If you've ever seen Journey to the Centre of the Earth, the murder of Gertrud struck me as something similar. There was little respect for life or the relationship of Gertrud to Hans, Saknussemm saw Gertrud as a resource he had the power to take. I don't think it's strictly about control as how rapes are typically characterized. I know many rumours that even in modern times men enlist in the military in the hope of being able to go on foreign campaigns and pillage villages, i.e. rape foreign women and sow their seeds abroad. You generally don't get this with officers. Education tends to naturally weed out such intentions. Quote:
That kind of self-reflection is common in the educated and world-weary. Not to someone who is only a few years removed from shallow high school romances.
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03-15-2016, 09:59 PM | #1125 | |
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Stuff like this gives me some sense of vindication:
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