05-03-2016, 07:49 PM | #1401 |
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The fuck, Teddy, what happened to trying to contest the convention, you [redacted]
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05-03-2016, 07:55 PM | #1402 |
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Yeah I'm pretty surprised, I fully expected him to be in for the long haul. Guess he's cutting his losses early and preparing for the next election.
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05-03-2016, 07:58 PM | #1403 |
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So who shall win: American Hitler, Discount Obama or Mysterious Teabag?
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05-03-2016, 08:03 PM | #1404 |
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Can we just either not have an election or quickly rescind the twenty-second amendment?
I can't wait until the Onion article... "'What The Fucking Fuck' Area Man Screams Upon Trump Nomination" |
05-03-2016, 08:28 PM | #1405 |
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I'm just grateful that Cruz is no longer a possibility. I know he didn't have much of a chance to do everything I feared, but a chance at a man singlehandedly destroying my future before it started was not one I wanted to entertain.
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05-03-2016, 08:33 PM | #1406 |
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What an amazing world this can be.
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05-03-2016, 08:37 PM | #1407 |
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Thanks for voting, Talon.
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05-03-2016, 08:38 PM | #1408 |
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Insert your best gif of Emperor Palpatine Hillary Clinton cackling maniacally here.
Cruz pulling out when a brokered convention was so obvious to the people is highly suspicious. Reeks of "all according to plan " with the Powers That Be engineering a Clinton presidency. Family friend Trump runs as a faux Republican and snaps the party in two ... weasel Cruz who is easily bought off was easily bought off to pretend to run as Trump's in-house nemesis ... pulls out to ensure matchup is Odious Trump-icature vs. Clinton, ensures Clinton will win ... *shrug* Maybe that's too much tin foil talking. I dunno. It just seems really, really strange that he'd sabotage Kasich's and Romney's plans at this juncture when not but one week ago he was saying how he'd stay out of WA and OR if Kasich would agree to stay out of IN.
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05-03-2016, 08:44 PM | #1409 |
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I literally just had the exact same conversation with my parents. It's pretty tin foily cuckoo, but stranger things have happened, so...?
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05-03-2016, 08:58 PM | #1410 | ||
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Likely, the RNC ops told Cruz a brokered convention would likely lead to a Democratic win, so he long planned on a forfeit if Trump ever came close to the delegate target. By contrast, I expect Bernie Sanders to run third party if he doesn't get the Democratic nomination.
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05-03-2016, 09:11 PM | #1411 |
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He can't though. Too many liberals would vote strategically to avoid a Trump presidency. (For evidence of that, look no farther than this very thread.) Neither party can afford to in-fight. Both parties' runners-up require it to be a four-way race for President for them to willingly participate.
The only way Bernie Sanders can run as an Independent is if John Kasich, Mitt Romney, or some other establishment Republican insists on staying in this and running as a New Republican. "Donald Trump has taken our party hostage," etc etc, "we have to form a daughter party in order to carry on the torch that Abe lit."
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05-03-2016, 09:22 PM | #1412 |
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No. Likely what happened is Cruz is doing Kasich a favor by dropping out as most of the upcoming states lean liberal or moderate anyway. Cruz wouldn't have had a chance in hell. By narrowing it to Trump and Kasich, Kasich actually stands to have a chance at stealing some delegates to lead to that oh-so-coveted brokered convention. I imagine Kasich will perform well in Oregon and California, honestly, to name a few. Trump still needs roughly 200 delegates for first ballot victory. The odds have swept to being in his favor for a poised nomination, but Kasich is the only one left who can stop that. Hahahahahaha hahahahahaha shit, sorry, that statement just made me laugh :')
Bernie won't run third party. Will not happen. He has already said he will support Hillary if he didn't get it. Simple and clean as that. The man changed his whole brand from Independent to Democrat, going back would not be a good luck, though I'm not sure he'd have anything left to lose. EDIT Fun little fact: 538 had Hillary at a 90% probability of winning Indiana going into today. But it's totally not Nate Silver, you guys, those are just the numbers he has to work with! Last edited by deoxys; 05-03-2016 at 09:33 PM. |
05-03-2016, 09:33 PM | #1414 |
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And in an Onion-style Headline, "Yes, John Kasich is Still Running for President"
HuffPo, keepin' it real. |
05-03-2016, 09:34 PM | #1415 | ||
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I mean, that's a horrible message for his supporters to swallow if he actually does go out and support Clinton. He should, at minimum, abstain from the race and not endorse anyone.
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05-03-2016, 10:40 PM | #1416 |
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I'm just so stunned that it was Cruz and not Kasich.
My mom literally cried when he announced it :'(
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05-04-2016, 12:08 AM | #1417 |
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It's fantastic that he won Indiana, but this is why Bernie can't win. I'm sorry to be a
But regardless: If you still want to vote for Bernie then god dammit, vote for him! |
05-04-2016, 01:00 AM | #1419 |
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It's mostly going to come down to swaying the 500~ superdelegates already backing Clinton, given that she only needs around 180 more delegates from whatever source to clinch the nomination currently with both the pledged delegates and superdelegates she has. Sanders also should go after the 200 or so superdelegates that have yet to back either candidate. Obviously having around equal or more pledged delegates would aid in that, but it would require the massive sorts of wins as mentioned earlier, which seem pretty unlikely.
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05-04-2016, 01:41 AM | #1420 | |
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05-04-2016, 04:02 AM | #1421 | |
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Sanders might've entertained a third party run if Congress were Democrat controlled, but not whilst it's Republican. In the case that no-one gets an outright majority of the electoral college (not just the most votes, but more than half) Congress chooses the President from the three most successful candidates. At this point, any serious third party run means President Trump even if he somehow came in third behind Clinton and Sanders in the general.
Can't say I'm super upset about Cruz backing out, he's arguably worse than Trump.
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05-04-2016, 08:24 AM | #1422 | |
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Your angle is interesting, but it wouldn't take us where I think you think it would. If this ends up being a three-way race between Trump, Clinton, and Sanders and it ends up going to Capitol Hill to decide, I can guarantee you that it'll end with Hillary Clinton being sworn in as President. The only way it humanly, possibly couldn't end that way, and would instead end with a Sanders presidency, would be if by some miracle the numbers ended up being 30% Trump (because 70% of the nation refuses to vote for him), 36% Sanders, and 34% Clinton. And Sanders could go to Capitol Hill and be like, "Not only have the American people unanimously voted against the Donald, but they've also rallied behind me in-party. I deserve your nomination." And I'd still see them spinning it as, "Well no, Bernie, we don't agree with your interpretation of the math. You're right about 70% of the country rejecting Donald, but you could also just as easily say that 64% of the country rejected you! Hillary is the centrist candidate in this three-way, surrounded by you two on either pole. So clearly, we're going to go with the centrist in order to try and appease both sides of the electorate as much as possible. HILLARY WINS!"
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05-04-2016, 09:46 AM | #1423 | |
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I know Trump is unpopular with much of the GOP and Hilary is the textbook establishment candidate in this race, but would a Republican controlled Congress choose her over Trump if it comes to an election where neither wins an outright majority? Reading between the lines of Bloomberg's decision not to run I got the impression that he'd rather let a mediocre Clinton beat Trump in a two way race than risk splitting a three way race and having Congress hand it to Trump, and suspect Sanders would make the same calculation.
What I could potentially see happening is a mainstream Republican candidate, having failed to stop Trump running off with the party nomination, standing as a "third party" candidate. Someone like Mitt Romney for example might have both the public profile and resources to stop either Clinton or Trump winning the election outright and sufficient pull with a Republican Congress to beat both at a vote there. And tbh with electoral maths as it is, running two very different GOP candidates - one a maverick outsider on the official ticket, one an establishment mainstay on an independent ticket - probably gives the GOP the best chance at stopping Clinton walking off with it.
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05-04-2016, 10:06 AM | #1424 | ||
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That stated, this could change in the coming weeks. The people who run the Republican convention are already calling on establishment Republicans to pledge their support of Donald Trump. This is the moment of truth. Will they or won't they? Quote:
To put things into perspective, I have already heard talk here in Indiana about how if Trump were to become President then this is the part where the states would pull a Civil War 2.0 and call on their national guard chapters to stave off the federal government's forces and to flatly refuse to accept Trump as their Commander-in-Chief. Indiana, the same state that just handed Trump an easy primary win. Trump is that unpopular with Hoosiers in general. You gotta remember: Trump only won about 52% of the Hoosier Republican primary vote. Republicans are roughly 50% of Hoosiers. And not all Hoosiers vote. Armchair estimate would be that only 30% of Hoosiers vote in a primary election. Let's ignore that third statistic entirely. The point would still be that Trump only secured 52% of 50% of Indiana's vote. That's only about 25, 26% of the state. 74, 75% of the state doesn't want him to be President. And for most of those 75%, the dislike is intense. So if people are talking that rhetoric about a winning Trump, how are they going to respond to a losing Romney that gets crowned President? Romney can't just beat Trump while also keeping Hillary beneath 50%. He has to soundly beat Clinton too. And he just can't do it. The country isn't that disfavorable to Democrats right now.
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05-04-2016, 01:08 PM | #1425 |
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Dear god, is Kasich really going to drop out? The hell?
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