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Old 01-11-2018, 01:24 AM   #4651
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Waterium Z Golduck best PDon counter
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:45 PM   #4652
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just lorb scald works i think
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Old 01-11-2018, 11:32 PM   #4653
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just lorb scald works i think
Yeah but that makes you a chad.
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Old 01-12-2018, 12:13 AM   #4654
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hey we flexin that duckLORD over here you already know
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Old 01-12-2018, 11:46 AM   #4655
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Apparently Ash-Greninja got Gunk Shot as with the US/UM move tutor, but it doesn't move the needle at all as far as its viability.

Even if you gave Water Shuriken 5 hits, which functionally makes it a priority Hydro Pump (with one hit on average getting a critical), the free move slot doesn't do any good. Water Shuriken's Hydro Vortex is much weaker than Hydro Pump's, so it no longer does enough damage to threats like Magearna. Meanwhile, Extrasensory/Ice Beam don't do enough to damage any other checks except Toxapex.
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Old 01-12-2018, 12:01 PM   #4656
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Gunk Shot is only really for Tapu Fini and maybe Clefable. The reason why its so good on normal Greninja is because Greninja gets stab on it and simultaneously will resist Moonblast while Ash Greninja doesn't.
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Old 01-12-2018, 05:09 PM   #4657
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Even with the STAB, the biggest benefit for Protean are the resistances that come with the type switch. It takes a lot less pressure off needing to OHKO would-be checks.

As a fun exercise, I wanted to see how G1 Mewtwo would do in the SM meta, with the following characteristics:

-154 SpD
-252 EVs in every stat
-+2 SpA, SpD Amnesia

Moves: Amnesia, Psystrike, Ice Beam, Fire Blast
Item: Leftovers
Ability: Pressure

I didn't correct for: criticals, G1's Psychic environment (where only weak super effective moves existed) or adjustments the meta makes to combat Mewtwo, assuming Geomancy Xerneas is similar enough to not affect builds much.
Mewtwo is always the first Pokemon sent out to take advantage of its speed for a fast setup + sweep.

Some takeaways, down the viability:

-Mega Rayquaza: Mewtwo goes +2, KO's
-Primal Groudon: phases it with Roar, but Mewtwo takes out 40% of its health with Ice Beam
-Dusk Mane Necrozma: Mewtwo goes +2 and KO's. Mewtwo can't risk Swords Dance.
-Yveltal: Choice Scarf Yveltal 2HKOs Mewtwo with Foul Play
-Xerneas: Mewtwo goes +6, KO's and probably sweeps
-Marshadow: Mewtwo KO's with Psystrike after tanking Shadow Sneak
-Mega Gengar: Mewtwo ties it in speed, but Mega Gengar loses almost every matchup due to Psystrike. Best move is to probably Taunt or Burn.
-Zygarde Complete: Mewtwo goes +2, Zygarde paralyzes it. Zygarde dies to a +2 Ice Beam but Mewtwo can continue to set up
-Arceus Ground: OHKO's Mewtwo with Z-Tectonic Rage
-Primal Kyogre: Mewtwo goes +6, KO's and probably sweeps
-Gothitelle: Best move is Trick Room, but Mewtwo goes +6.
-Ho-Oh: Gets in one Sacred Fire before the KO. Mewtwo +2.
-Magearna: Mewtwo boosts itself to +6, then drops Psystrike on +6 Magearna.

A- through D: No unique challengers compared to above.

Edit: Actually, looks like I was wrong about Yveltal and Arceus-Ground.
Foul Play fails 73% of the time to 1HKO Mewtwo if you give him 0 IVs and 0 EVs in Attack.
Arceus-Ground:
252 Atk Arceus-Ground Tectonic Rage (180 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Mewtwo on a critical hit: 352-415 (84.6 - 99.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

Ain't happening. RBY Mewtwo still wrecks the meta like it's 1999. Only Primal Groudon and Dusk Mane Necrozma give him pause.
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Old 01-17-2018, 10:49 AM   #4658
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Pretty big news

Apparently everyone thought that the base critical hit rate in Gen VII was 1/16. Turns out it's actually 1/24. Showdown just updated with the change.
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Old 01-17-2018, 12:24 PM   #4659
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How did this go unnoticed?
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Old 01-17-2018, 01:42 PM   #4660
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Response from a dude on Smogon:

"At a guess, it's because crits seemed completely unchanged at a glance (higher stage crit chances were unchanged) so nobody really went looking and it's not something that'd immediately stand out just from playing - 4.16% vs 6.25% isn't so drastic a change that people would notice in particular, they're both fairly unlikely but not overwhelmingly unlikely.

Keep in mind that relatively obscure stuff pops up from time to time much later than you'd expect - for example the Sleep Talk mechanics in gen III weren't discovered until 9 years after gen IV released."

---

This is probably the most likely explanation. Another example is this MAJOR discovery made about gen 1 mechanics in late 2014. The biggest takeaway from it is that Body Slam is a very commonly used move in RBY, and it turns out that it cannot paralyze Normal types. With Tauros, Snorlax, and Chansey being used on almost every team this was a huge realization. And it wasn't until over fifteen years later that anyone noticed!
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Old 01-17-2018, 06:15 PM   #4661
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The Gen I discovery actually changed like, how you play the Gen I OU metagame, its bonkers.

Well that and Counter Chansey.
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Old 01-18-2018, 02:36 AM   #4662
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That's pretty inexcusable, in both cases, without needing to look at code. Just running aggregate statistical data should be able to sell you the crit or paralysis rates. You have well over 1,000 samples...closer to a hundred times that...so it should be sitting in plain sight.

To me, this underlines a problem systemic to what is effectively children's hobbies, in that someone with advanced statistical knowledge aren't present in the communities. Not compared to baseball's sabermetrics, which was what made baseball first accessible to me back in 2007, when I was studying econometrics.

This bugged me way more with Yu-Gi-Oh! though, since internally but I didn't have the tools or the controlled environment to test my suspicions, and now that my deck is worthless I don't care anymore.
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Old 01-18-2018, 05:49 AM   #4663
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Needlefiber wants attention senpai.
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Old 01-18-2018, 06:54 PM   #4664
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It's one thing with Gen VII where lots of weird things changed but it wasn't obvious, and this was largely a chance-related thing.

Even with Gen I the Gen I games were only properly disassembled like a yearish ago, so you would literally need to hexedit hex values of the nasty tangle of assembly that is Gen I game to discover mechanics like that. You'd basically have to know what you're looking for to ever discover it. Otherwise, why would you expect this specific irregular behavior if nothing even close to clear pointed to it?
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Old 02-08-2018, 05:46 PM   #4665
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Quoth the Honchkrow (nevermore!).
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:13 PM   #4666
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Altaria

So salty, this guy xd;
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W(DQ)- 22(3) L(DQ)-14(0)
KO-55
TP-131 SP- 64.5/96.5 (5SP to Deh, 5SP to FW, 5SP to Desert Spirit, 8.5SP to Fallen Icarus, 10SP to Kyro12, 8SP to Charminions, 10 to aposteriori)
SHUCKS I GOTTA FIX THIS SOMETIME
~TL3~

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Credits to Charm for making this!


Come, my birdies!!!! Mwahahahaha!!!!!!


Thanks Pingu for being so nice and making me this~


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Fear my abnormally large signature~

Be Positive Ref~ I <3 you, Lonely Cubone and those who eval'd me~
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Old 02-10-2018, 08:33 AM   #4667
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Still got it.

A hard fought victory (featuring genesis supernova in psychic terrain)
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Last edited by Heather; 02-10-2018 at 08:46 AM.
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Old 02-10-2018, 01:30 PM   #4668
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The hax was definitely even that game, he was probably mad because you forgot sleep clause and he still lost xd
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Old 02-12-2018, 06:36 PM   #4669
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Altaria

A close call
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Spoiler: show
W(DQ)- 22(3) L(DQ)-14(0)
KO-55
TP-131 SP- 64.5/96.5 (5SP to Deh, 5SP to FW, 5SP to Desert Spirit, 8.5SP to Fallen Icarus, 10SP to Kyro12, 8SP to Charminions, 10 to aposteriori)
SHUCKS I GOTTA FIX THIS SOMETIME
~TL3~

~Fizzy Bubbles~


Credits to Charm for making this!


Come, my birdies!!!! Mwahahahaha!!!!!!


Thanks Pingu for being so nice and making me this~


Credit to TheKnightsFury for the sprite!

Fear my abnormally large signature~

Be Positive Ref~ I <3 you, Lonely Cubone and those who eval'd me~
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Old 02-14-2018, 05:52 PM   #4670
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Altaria

A REALLY CLOSE CALL
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Spoiler: show
W(DQ)- 22(3) L(DQ)-14(0)
KO-55
TP-131 SP- 64.5/96.5 (5SP to Deh, 5SP to FW, 5SP to Desert Spirit, 8.5SP to Fallen Icarus, 10SP to Kyro12, 8SP to Charminions, 10 to aposteriori)
SHUCKS I GOTTA FIX THIS SOMETIME
~TL3~

~Fizzy Bubbles~


Credits to Charm for making this!


Come, my birdies!!!! Mwahahahaha!!!!!!


Thanks Pingu for being so nice and making me this~


Credit to TheKnightsFury for the sprite!

Fear my abnormally large signature~

Be Positive Ref~ I <3 you, Lonely Cubone and those who eval'd me~
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Old 02-18-2018, 12:11 AM   #4671
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Altaria

When Solid Rock actually makes a difference
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Hi, I'm Daisy!

Spoiler: show
W(DQ)- 22(3) L(DQ)-14(0)
KO-55
TP-131 SP- 64.5/96.5 (5SP to Deh, 5SP to FW, 5SP to Desert Spirit, 8.5SP to Fallen Icarus, 10SP to Kyro12, 8SP to Charminions, 10 to aposteriori)
SHUCKS I GOTTA FIX THIS SOMETIME
~TL3~

~Fizzy Bubbles~


Credits to Charm for making this!


Come, my birdies!!!! Mwahahahaha!!!!!!


Thanks Pingu for being so nice and making me this~


Credit to TheKnightsFury for the sprite!

Fear my abnormally large signature~

Be Positive Ref~ I <3 you, Lonely Cubone and those who eval'd me~
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Old 03-08-2018, 11:37 AM   #4672
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So can someone explain to me why Necrozma-DW is still x4 weak to Ghost and Dark despite having Prism Armour? I see people saying it doesn't apply because it's a double weakness but I don't see any evidence for that at all.

Possibly bugged?
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Old 03-08-2018, 11:54 AM   #4673
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Quote:
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So can someone explain to me why Necrozma-DW is still x4 weak to Ghost and Dark despite having Prism Armour? I see people saying it doesn't apply because it's a double weakness but I don't see any evidence for that at all.

Possibly bugged?
Been out of the loop for an embarrassingly long time, but looking into Prism Armor on Bulbapedia ...

Quote:
Prism Armor reduces damage from supereffective moves by Ľ (regardless of the effectiveness multiplier).
... it seems that if Dawn Wings Necrozma were to be hit by, say, Shadow Ball, that it would still do 4x damage initially (because Psychic/Ghost is 4x weak to Ghost), and then you go ahead and apply Prism Armor's buff to say that you only take three-quarters of the normal damage.

I'm not sure if this correct or not. It's possible the buff as programmed (in either USUM, Showdown, or both) only works with filtering the damage of 2x effective moves and not 4x ones. But I don't read it that way, at least not from Bulbapedia and some shallow Googling. It seems to me like the damage multiplier is effectively reduced from 4x to 3x -- helpful in theory, not helpful in practice. (A 3x modifier on incoming damage coupled with paper-thin defenses means you're still going down in one hit.)

So I guess I'd ask, are you sure you're still taking 4x damage and not 3x damage? Keep in mind, 3x damage is still very impressive and will OHKO most glass cannons.
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Old 03-08-2018, 05:09 PM   #4674
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I ran the numbers on the calculator:

252 SpA Haunter Shadow Ball vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Prism Armor Necrozma-Dawn-Wings: 291-345 (86.8 - 102.9%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (291, 297, 297, 300, 306, 309, 315, 315, 318, 324, 327, 327, 333, 336, 342, 345)

252 SpA Haunter Shadow Ball vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Necrozma-Dawn-Wings: 388-460 (115.8 - 137.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (388, 396, 396, 400, 408, 412, 420, 420, 424, 432, 436, 436, 444, 448, 456, 460)

So it does look like Prism Armor has an effect, and Bulbapedia is wrong about the totals. (They show that Necrozma-DM only takes 1.5x from attacks, but show Necrozma-DW as taking x4). Smogon's write up was misleading as well in conjunction with the Bulbapedia entry:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smogon
Prism Armor is also a downgrade from Shadow Shield, as Necrozma-DW has no 2x weaknesses to make Prism Armor a better defensive ability. Strong Ghost- and Dark-type moves will still blow Necrozma-DW away.
Could be worded better, but you can see above what the author is talking about. I had to use Haunter, because Gengar killed Necrozma-DM in all situations, and here Haunter still has a near 20% OHKO with Prism Armor up, and guarantees a kill with it down.

I guess people are treating Prism Armour like it doesn't matter, because with the power level of ubers it really doesn't matter. Might as well be holding a paper shield up in defense.
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Old 03-15-2018, 06:05 AM   #4675
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I was bored, so I built a chart that highlights "ADJUSTED BST".

The reasoning behind it is, outside of very case-specific situations (like Nidoking), most Pokemon run either a physical or a special set, and don't attempt to run mixed. You don't run mixed because you can't EV train for both offensive stats AND speed, while another team member probably specializes in the category you didn't, so running a subpar mixed stat has the opportunity cost of a utility or coverage move.

Pokemon with both high ATK and SPA, have misleading BST, because in practice one of those stats goes to waste. I also calculate a "waste" percentage, or the percent decrease from BST the Pokemon goes by dropping either ATK or SPA.

While this doesn't say a ton about distribution, it better captures distribution than unadjusted BST, so on the whole I think it's more informative.

As you'd expect, at the top of the waste margin are Pokemon with high stats in both ATK and SpA. For Pokemon >600 BST, the average waste is 16.5%, and the median waste is 16.6%. Interestingly, Arceus, who is 120 in every stat, sits exactly at this median with 16.6% waste.

So who is the most efficient at ATK-SpA distribution, here? Well, at the top of the list:

1. Heracross-Mega (6.6%)
2. Alakazam-Mega (8.3%)
3. Steelix-Mega (9.01%)
4. Aggron-Mega (9.52%)
5. Gallade-Mega (10.51%)
6. Gengar-Mega (10.83%)
7. Pinsir-Mega (10.83%)
8. Scizor-Mega (10.83%)
9. Gyarados-Mega (10.93%)
10. Aerodactyl-Mega (11.38%)

Remember that base stats don't tell the whole story - in fact, they're probably the least important attribute now, behind Ability, Moves, Typing, Stat Distribution and Item - but I wouldn't have imagined this list at all. A bunch of physical attackers, some steel types, exclusively Megas.

I think the Mega part is worth noting because since these guys can't hold an item, they need that efficiency to make up for a lack of Life Orb or Choice item.

Next on the list (gonna stop at 20 for now:

11. Deoxys-D
12. Cresselia
13. Regigigas
14. Meloetta-Aria
15. Meloetta-Pirouette
16. Zygarde-Complete
17. Lugia
18. Latias
19. Garchomp
20. Zygarde-50%

This part of the list (we're still not at 16.6%) is more interesting, with tiering all over the map. You have bulky psychics (Deoxys-D, Meloetta-A, Lugia, Latias, Cresselia), the game's premier wall (Zygarde-C) and his little brother (Zygarde-50%), a gimped golemn (Regi) and what looks like the best stated of the pseudo-legendaries.

I'll work on this more tomorrow, maybe more interesting things will appear.
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